tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post197034276727912067..comments2023-03-26T14:59:38.567-07:00Comments on A Day in the Life of a Poker Narcissist (who decided to grow up): Ride Right through the BeatDanyulhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13305287964525432325noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post-41752493966590082922007-04-20T01:20:00.000-07:002007-04-20T01:20:00.000-07:00Well based on my read of him and his $200 bet I fe...Well based on my read of him and his $200 bet I felt as though he liked his hand so I would have little to none in the fold equity department. Straight math dictates that to be a -EV play if I have no fold equity as I would be putting in ~$500 to win no more than $700 so I would only be getting around 1.4:1 on a 12 outer, roughly a 3:2 shot. Now if he had a set then he has redraws which would drop me down from about 40% to around 30-35%. And if, per chance had something like the AdKd which would make perfect sense then I would drop dramatically to about 15-20%. Once the fold equity goes out the window, I don't think i can play it. Turns out the SB raised him all in and the bettor called. The flop board was Qd Jd 5c and the SB had J 5 and the original bettor had a QJ. The Q on the turn sealed the deal.Danyulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13305287964525432325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post-90356199726032716192007-04-19T15:41:00.000-07:002007-04-19T15:41:00.000-07:00Big difference though between your scenario and hi...Big difference though between your scenario and his. In the one where you have Td 8d, someone else could maybe have a higher flush draw, in which case you're in trouble. But in his case, he was drawing to the 2nd nut flush and it had to seem extremely unlikely that anyone would have the nut (queen-high) flush draw. And he was getting good odds at that point. There's no doubt that his call is more tempting than yours. But even yours is a tough one I think. Are you sure that your folding there was right? I probably would've gone all in.rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14085706101792766350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post-18955428513590062772007-04-18T17:40:00.000-07:002007-04-18T17:40:00.000-07:00As far as the $75 and $100 situations go, there wa...As far as the $75 and $100 situations go, there was no typo. I was describing two different situations. Someone opening for 7.5XBB after only one limper and someone making it $100 after only 2 limpers. This type of play is intended to end the pot preflop, which is good for tournament but action killer in cash games.Danyulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13305287964525432325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post-85303188658097381642007-04-18T17:38:00.000-07:002007-04-18T17:38:00.000-07:00I guess my problem with this play by him is the fa...I guess my problem with this play by him is the fact that he is trying to semi-bluff on a board which almost certainly he cannot semibluff. It just seems as though he wants to get all of his $600+ in with a 12 out draw to win only a $200+ pot. It doesn't seem like that would be a way to win in the longrun. For instance, later on in the session I called a raise in late position with 10d 8d. The board came Qd Jd 5c. The original raiser bet $200 into the $140 pot. I could have raised him allin (he only had about $250-275) more. Based on his action, its pretty obvious he likes his hand so I don't have fold equity and while i do have a gutshot straight flush draw I can assume I only have again 12 outs. Calling wasn't right unless I was willing to call his remainder on a blank on the turn so i encountered the same situation just with positions different. I opted to fold the 10 8 instead of risking almost $500 to win a $140 pot.Danyulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13305287964525432325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4298126145260116393.post-9743857855379570022007-04-18T09:20:00.000-07:002007-04-18T09:20:00.000-07:00Not sure what you mean at the end there because of...Not sure what you mean at the end there because of a typo -- do you mean the first guy raises to $25 and the next guy makes it $100? (I think you said $75 and $100.) <BR/><BR/>As for the J7 guy, I'm not sure why you're so surprised that he'd call your all-in with a flush draw and gutshot straight draw. Seems like he's getting the right odds, especially since it's so unlikely that you have the higher flush draw. I'd have called too I think. But I don't like his lead bet on the flop. It's so unlikely that everyone's gonna fold to that bet on an AKQ board. And, if he gets called, then what's he gonna do on the turn if he misses? He's first to act, so just check and fold? Go all in? Either way seems bad. And if he does hit on the turn, that means a ten or heart came and either would likely kill any action. If I were him, I'd probably have checked to you. Then if you bet, he can raise all-in, but if the other guy bets and you raise all-in, he can fold and lose nothing. If everyone checks the flop that's not so bad either.<BR/>What would you have done, in his shoes?rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14085706101792766350noreply@blogger.com